Editor’s note: City Scope has a new Facebook page at http://facebook.com/St.ThomasCityScope
You could say Rob Flack is going back to his roots.
His agricultural roots, that is.
Late Thursday afternoon in the Doug Ford cabinet shuffle, the Elgin-Middlesex-London MPP found himself part of the major shake-up, becoming Minister of Farming, Agriculture and Agribusiness.
He had been Associate Minister of Housing as a member of the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, a posting that was part of a cabinet shuffle last fall.
Flack was given a specific mandate on attainable housing and modular homes reporting to Paul Calandra, the new Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing.
It’s a return of sorts to his early days following his election in 2022.
Flack had been appointed one of two parliamentary assistants to Lisa Thompson, Minister of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs in July of that year.
Drawing on his agricultural background when he served as president and CEO of Masterfeeds Inc. in London, before running for office.
We spoke with Flack on Friday (June 7), less than 24 hours after the shuffle.
“Well yesterday I was trying to get houses built until about five o’clock and now I’m going to help farmers produce the food for the people who are going to live in those houses.
“From about lunch onward yesterday until about five o’clock, there was a lot going on and he (Premier Doug Ford) called me in the afternoon and asked me if I would take on this role and, of course, I accepted.
“It’s a great honour, indeed.
“I love helping the Premier and the government any way I can, but my first priority is to the people of Elgin-Middlesex-London.
“I’ve been involved with farming, agriculture, agribusiness and agrifoods my entire life, over 40 years.”
Flack has a farm in the Ottawa Valley where he has a summer home and raises cattle “in a serious way.”
Something Flack says, “keeps me grounded.”
And, keeps him close to the everyday ups and downs of farming.
If you thought Flack was passionate during his short spell in the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, that’s small potatoes compared to his enthusiasm for agribusiness.
“Agriculture is a massive industry in this province and in this country. From the farm gate to the consumer’s plate, there are just under a million jobs in this province.
“In fact, the food and beverage sector, if I’m not mistaken is the largest or second largest employer in the province.
“Gross domestic product, we’re touching just under $50 billion and I would be surprised to see it go over that this year.
“So it’s not just a small industry . . . it’s vitally important.”
“I want to see our food processing sector flourish . . . We grow more food than we consume and we’re going to keep doing that thanks to the innovation and ingenuity of Ontario farmers.”
We asked about this change in focus of the ministry, reflected in the new name.
“When I met with the Premier yesterday, he gave me the mandate to continue to grow the financial or the economic base of this industry.
“What we’ve done is take the business of farming, agriculture and agribusiness and agrifood and made it a standalone ministry to focus on those issues and we’ve taken the rural affairs component of the ministry and made it a separate ministry under the leadership of Minister Lisa Thompson.
“And, I’m really glad to see that.”
Out of the gate, Flack would like to get out and meet with those in agribusiness to “listen and learn from the stakeholders.
“To make sure we’re ready, we’re competitive and that this province under this premier has created the environment for farmers, agribusiness and agrifood sectors to flourish.”
The riding has a history of housing agriculture ministers including John Wise, Mitch Hepburn and Steve Peters.
“We live in southwestern Ontario in a virtual Garden of Eden,” suggested Flack.
“I want to see our food processing sector flourish . . . We grow more food than we consume and we’re going to keep doing that thanks to the innovation and ingenuity of Ontario farmers.”
You can listen to my conversation with Rob Flack below.
LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD
The numbers are thrown about with seeming ease like autumn leaves tossed high into the chill October wind.
Thousands of new homes to sprout up in St. Thomas and environs to house a burgeoning workforce drawn to the PowerCo EV battery plant and the inevitable support industries like moths to a flame.
How large will St. Thomas become by the halfway point in this century?
And will we recognize what, not that long ago, was a fairly sedate city, struggling to maintain the vitality of its previous embodiment as The Railway Capital of Canada?
A report before city council on Monday (June 10) sheds light on some aspects of life in St. Thomas three decades into the future.
Growth Analysis Study, City of St. Thomas has been prepared by Watson & Associates, Economists Ltd.
The firm was retained by the city in 2022 to prepare employment and population forecasts as part of an update to the Official Plan.
It presented that report in August of that year.
A little more than six months later, Volkswagen announced St. Thomas would be the home for its EV gigafactory and the Watson report was instantly outdated.
“The direct employment of the St. Thomas EV battery plant has the potential to generate approximately 14,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs within Canada.”
The 2.0 version of their forecast was released in April and illustrates the impact of the Volkswagen announcement.
The 2022 report projected a city population forecast of 65,100 in 2051.
How about 79,500 in the just-released update?
This means the Volkswagen plant through its subsidiary PowerCo will be a critical driver of future growth in St. Thomas.
As projected at the Volkswagen announcement just over a year ago, the gigafactory is planned to be the largest Volkswagen plant in North America and is expected to directly employ 3,000 people.
“Accordingly the (EV battery) plant and associated supply chain employment growth will likely lead to increased competition for labour and could displace employees from existing businesses that operate currently in the regional area.”
As noted in the Watson study, “The direct employment of the St. Thomas EV battery plant has the potential to generate approximately 14,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs within Canada.”
Of that total, 7,400 will be in the St. Thomas/Elgin/London commuter shed, with 5,800 of those jobs in St. Thomas.
The Watson study cautions, “It is important to note that this forecast of 5,800 jobs in St. Thomas will have disruptive impacts on the city’s existing labour force and population base.”
It continues, “Accordingly the (EV battery) plant and associated supply chain employment growth will likely lead to increased competition for labour and could displace employees from existing businesses that operate currently in the regional area.”
Another highlight of the study suggests, “While the Volkswagen EV battery plant is expected to attract a greater share of working-age residents to the city, the St. Thomas population base is still anticipated to steadily age over the next three decades.”
“Due to increasing growth pressures forecast in the city, additional employment lands will be required within St. Thomas beyond what is designated today.”
That would seem rather obvious as all of us are going to age over the coming decades.
By 2051, the city’s housing base is forecast to increase to 33,400 households. That’s up from 18,100 in 2021.
Of that projected total, 55 per cent would be low-density units, 19 per cent medium-density units and 26 per cent high-density, presumably apartments.
The study advises, “This shift in dwelling type preferences toward medium and high density is anticipated to be driven largely by the aging of the population and, to a lesser extent, from continued upward pressure on local housing prices.”
Another cautionary note from the study.
“Due to increasing growth pressures forecast in the city, additional employment lands will be required within St. Thomas beyond what is designated today.”
The projected shortfall is 47 acres by 2051.
Officials with the Municipality of Central Elgin should take note that this shortfall may require “further expansion of the city’s corporate boundary in the future.”
The report to council concludes, “Given the immense pressure for urban development that is forecast in the next decade, in part due to the Volkswagen battery plant, the city should continue to build on local monitoring frameworks to ensure that growth forecasts and housing targets are reviewed annually.”
You can’t help but wonder about the buy-in from consumers when it comes to actually investing hard-earned dollars in an electric vehicle at this time.
And with the shift to the right in the political landscape here, south of the border and across Europe, what will the appetite for these vehicles be in the near future?
A driving force in the next federal election here at home could very well be the much-hated carbon tax.
As illustrated above in the two versions of studies from Watson & Associates, we are sitting on shifting sand.
TAKING ACTION ON POVERTY
The Elgin St. Thomas Coalition to End Poverty is hosting a community consultation event this Wednesday (June 12) from 9 a.m. until 4 p.m. at Memorial Arena.
As of this past week, 125 community members have registered from a variety of sectors including volunteer, local government, the business community, social services and individuals with lived/living experiences of poverty.
Special guests include Kelly Ziegner from the United Way Elgin Middlesex, Paul Jenkins from the St. Thomas and District Chamber of Commerce, St. Thomas Mayor Joe Preston and Sean Dyke from the St. Thomas Economic Development Corporation.
The day will be facilitated by Paul Born from the Tamarack Institute and Communities Ending Poverty.
The goal, according to Randie Gregoire of the Poverty Coalition, “is to have a 360-degree understanding of poverty in our community and how we can move forward for action together.” We’ll have more with her next week in this corner.
Registration closes tomorrow (Sunday, June 9) and there is no admission charge. You can register here.
FOR THE CALENDAR
The city is undertaking a refresh of its Transportation Master Plan to accommodate future growth.
According to a notice issued this week by city staff, “Generally, Transportation Master Plans examine current transportation issues, assess existing and future growth
patterns, determine the need for transportation improvements, and establish policies to support the plan and maintain the transportation network.
“The refresh of the TMP is using updated growth forecasts to 2051 that incorporate new industrial growth and is incorporating changes to the way residents travel around the community.
“The TMP refresh will address existing transportation challenges and opportunities, support growth, and recommend policies to promote an efficient, multi-modal transportation network which fosters vehicular, bicycle, pedestrian, and transit mobility.
As such, a public open house is being held June 25 from 4 until 7:30 p.m. at Memorial Arena to allow residents to ask questions and discuss their ideas with members of the project team.
More information on the Transportation Master Plan can be found at https://www.stthomas.ca/cms/one.aspx?pageid=16572566&portalid=12189805
THE ECHO CHAMBER
Following up on our item last week on the Transforming Tomorrow Campaign, reader Janet Kennedy forwarded this thought. Are other area residents experiencing significantly longer wait times?
“Hopefully STEGH will also revamp its Emergency intake procedures. The wait time is longer than hospitals in London.”
Questions and comments may be emailed to City Scope
Visit us on Facebook
And a reminder, I can be heard weekday afternoons as news anchor and reporter on 94.1 myFM in St. Thomas. As always, your comments and input are appreciated.
